{"id":135,"date":"2016-08-20T02:17:59","date_gmt":"2016-08-20T02:17:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/?p=135"},"modified":"2016-08-20T02:17:59","modified_gmt":"2016-08-20T02:17:59","slug":"the-sky-is-falling-but-im-not-short","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/2016\/08\/20\/the-sky-is-falling-but-im-not-short\/","title":{"rendered":"The sky is falling &#8230; [but I&#8217;m not short]"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With the Dow and other indices at record levels, there is no shortage of pundits out there warning of an impending correction, or worse. See, for example, http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2016\/04\/15\/investing\/stock-market-donald-trump-ted-cruz\/ and http:\/\/thesovereigninvestor.com\/exclusives\/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016\/ .<\/p>\n<p>Some of the fear mongers, unfortunately, have an ulterior motive for predicting doom and gloom. A number of advisers look at such predictions as free options &#8211; if there is a crash, they can sagely point to their\u00a0warnings and say, &#8220;See, I called it.&#8221; Some can even monetize their call&#8230; raising funds as investors look to re-allocate their decimated portfolios to stem the bleeding. If there is no crash, well, no one will look back and call them out on their incorrect call.<\/p>\n<p>To me, the real question is whether these prognosticators have their money where their mouth is. If they think a major crash is coming, are they short? Or at least in cash? If not, I find their warnings have little credibility. They might be right, they might be wrong &#8211; either way, they&#8217;re not betting their own money on the call.<\/p>\n<p>As the famous saying from Paul Samuelson goes, Economists (using technical indicators), &#8220;predicted nine of the last five recessions.&#8221; It wouldn&#8217;t surprise me if unscrupulous financial advisers and nay-saying pundits predicted ninety.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the Dow and other indices at record levels, there is no shortage of pundits out there warning of an impending correction, or worse. See, for example, http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2016\/04\/15\/investing\/stock-market-donald-trump-ted-cruz\/ and http:\/\/thesovereigninvestor.com\/exclusives\/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016\/ . Some of the fear mongers, unfortunately, have an ulterior motive for predicting doom and gloom. A number of advisers look at such predictions as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=135"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":138,"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135\/revisions\/138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.sugata.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}